All of the first round match-ups proceeded as expected. The Wild bumbled their way into a Game 7 and really couldn’t put together the consistency to push things over. I was surprised that Fiala and Kaprizov were basically non-factors in the overall series. VGK’s PK did a great job, with a strong 90% showing in Round 1.
Here’s my take on the second round:
Looking at GAA/PP%/PK% it’s easy to spin this in the B’s direction. I feel, however, that the Islanders depth is starting to show and I’m looking to see how JG Pageau and Palmieri can make a difference. K Miller is still not skating yet for the Bruins and their D depth will be tested. The regular season match-up results were a little weird with the two teams trading mini win streaks as the Bruins lost 5 in a row and then won the final 3. While writing this article the Islanders Series line went from +226 to +210. And +1.5 games moved to -115 from +113. The latter was a good pick-up at the time. Special teams are always important in playoffs, so in the end I pick Boston to win the series.
TAM is -130 favoured to win this series. The Predators had the Canes on the ropes a few times during the season, but OT came through for the Canes. The Bolts are a different beast. PK performance could be the difference, but I’m going to give the big edge to the defending champs and their hot PP. I think there’s good value in the series game handicap. Season series went 4-4 with teams winning home games 3 out of 4 each. The under was 1-6-1, a lot of mutual respect?
Playoffs, special teams. This matchup will be quite interesting. Further, the play of Grubauer will also determine how quickly the Avs can finish the Golden Knights off. Yes, that’s how I see it!
Won’t read too much into Toronto’s stellar PK stats after five games vs. the Habs. But I like the Hellebuyck situation here for the Jets and their line up vs. the Leafs. Might revisit this after the series is officially over, but I like the Jets vs. either TOR/MTL.
Collision Course Planning
WPG vs COL and TAM vs BOS seem like great conference final series!
NHL Playoffs Picks – Round2
1u – BOS + COL series win parlay -100
0.5u Tampa -1.5 games series win +141
Playoffs Picks Record: 3-1 +2.92 units
Stanley Cup Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning +750
Round 1: 1.5u CAR -1.5 games to win series -130 – Win +1.15u
Round 1: 1u NYI +130 – Win +1.3u
Round 1: 1u BOS+COL -103 – Win +0.97u
Round 1: 0.5u MIN +215 – Loss -0.5u