Here’s how the Chief looked at the TNF GB vs. ARI game. Some OU trends based on the situational/event nature of the game plus some thoughts behind the prevailing concern that the Packers will be without Davante Adams.
Since >=2017:
- GB as an Away Dog: 13-7 Ov-Un
- GB Away Total > 49: 8-5-1 Ov-Un-Push
- GB on TNF 3-1-1 Ov-Un-Push
- ARI @home with game totals > 49: 5-1-0 Over
Remove the wk1 Packers result and you have a team that still averaged 26pts on the road vs. the 8th/5th/13th best defenses by DVOA* in the league. For the Cardinals, outside of the SF contest, they have reached 30+ in all their contests so far this year and it would be reasonable to assume they would against the Packers’ 20th ranked defense as well.
Rodgers will still find his receivers and the Cards rushing defense will give up yards to Jones to allow for that general Packers offensive execution balance. Look at the number of points Packers scored in past few seasons when Adams did not play:
2020 Wk3 @ NOS 35pts, 271yds, 3TDs
2020 Wk4 vs ATL 30pts, 315yds, 4TDs
2019 Wk5 @ DAL 34pts, 238yds, 0TDs (Jones 4TDs)
2019 Wk6 vs DET 23pts, 283yds, 2TDs, 1INT
2019 Wk7 vs LV 42pts, 429yds, 5TDs
2019 Wk8 @ KC 31pts, 267yds, 2TDs
Only the one divisional game where he/Packers didn’t eclipse 30pts without Adams in the lineup. I think Rodgers will put up his fair share of points on Thursday Night. The line’s over-reacting to his injury news. Let’s take advantage and play the over.
TNF Pick – Over 50, -108
Funsies prop pick Marcedes Lewis Anytime TD +850
*DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average)
