To pick a Masters event winner, recent performance history at August is important. There’s something about the course, that demands historical experience and memory. Taking that into account, here are my thoughts about picking the winner this year and ultimately how I’m betting the tourney.
For my shortlist, I wanted to focus on golfers who have great recent history at Augusta National. Players who finished T20 or better 3 times or more in the past 5 Masters. Reasoning/historical reference is below:
2021 Hideki; four of five priors T13, T32, 19, T11, T7
2020 DJ won; four priors T2, T10, T4, T6, – , T13
2019 Tiger; three of five priors: T32, T17, T4, T40, T4
2018 Sergio; 3 of five priors: T34, T17, – , T8, T12
2017 Reed; won on fifth try; four priors: -, T49, T22, –
Willet and Spieth were able to win the Masters in their second try. I think that’s rare. I like my principle above. Bubba (2014, 2012) and Scott (2013) had prior Masters success before winning too.
That makes 2022 shortlist the following:
- Jon Rahm +1249
- Cameron Smith +1862
- Brooks Koepka +2179
- Rory McIlroy +2143
- Jordan Spieth +2702
- Justin Thomas +1381
- Xander Schauffele +2568
- Marc Leishman +8119
- Tony Finau +6405
- Justin Rose +10344
- Webb Simpson +11000
Gave some exceptions to:
- Corey Conners +6250
- Collin Morikawa +2491
- Patrick Cantlay +2326
- Will Zalatoris +3805
- Scottie Scheffler +1837
No DJ or Patrick Reed. They’ve won, I question their desire.
Add in some statistics darlings who are accurate have decent recent (3 months) strokes gained on approach and putting stats:
- Viktor Hovland +2490 (Prev: T21, T32)
- Daniel Berger +4692 (Prev: – , T32, T27, T10)
- Matthew Fitzpatrick +5071 (Prev: T34, T46, T21, T38, 32, 7th in 2016)
- Sung-jae Im +8363 (Prev: -, T2)
- Russell Henley +5500 (Prev: 2017: T11, 2018: T15)
The have to shortlist with the historical performance in mind. In which case I’m unwilling to back these stats darlings as none of them meet my T20 recent performance history criteria. I’m also going to scratch out the rookies and even Scottie Scheffler who’s got two back to back T20s.
Favourites: Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith
Long shots: Justin Rose, Marc Leischman
Nostalgia: Jordan Spieth (as opposed to Tiger – although I love that Tiger’s going to be competing!)
Units Management: Play 3 units total spread based on: 0.8u: Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas; 0.45u: Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth; and 0.25u: Justin Rose, Marc Leischman
