So there was this windstorm,,,
It’s your host, the Chief! Welcome to the Pick Doctors Sports Betting Podcast – print edition. The power’s out and my Saturday is packed, so we’re going print edition again this week. It’s been an interesting start to the NHL season so let’s go through some thoughts there first.
Eastern Conference – The Maple Leafs are now +1200 odds to win the Cup vs. the +800 we saw during our review. Problems stopping goals, as suspected. The Panthers have performed well without key defensive pieces in Ekblad and Montour. If you want to back them, probably need to do it soon before they come back. Small surprise, the Red Wings chemistry mix has been great to start the season. They are playing a lot better than I thought they could. If you feel it’s in the Penguins desire to truly content one more time this season, now’s your chance: +4000 odds.
Western Conference – Over in Central division you have the Stars and Avs leading; no surprise. Bedard has made his impact and the Blackhawks are an exciting ticket again. The shock and awe is in the Pacific however, with the Canucks up top with the Golden Knights and the Oilers in the bottom with the Sharks. What goalie trade options do they have? Would Boston ever split their duo? Carter Hart? With Freddy Andersen on IR, Kochetkov is off the table. Preds move on from Saros to rebuild? Salary cap situation will be tough. Are we late on the Canucks at +1600 or is there value in the Oilers at +2200.
NFL Futures – Baltimore is looking good. Division and now as a Super Bowl contender. Niners need to get back on track off this bye and well, the Chargers… you just never know 😉
NFL Game 1 – SF -3 vs. JAX; Total: 45 O/U – Since the start of 2018; two teams coming off a bye leads to 7 overs and 21 unders. When it’s inter-conference, it’s 2-16. DVOA has the Niners tops on offense but now with a middling defense. JAX is the flipside with middle class/decent offense and the third ranked defense. From a potential under point of view, I think it’s viable. Niners on away games off a bye under Kyle Shanahan are 2-2 ATS and 0-4 O-U (actual totals 9 pts below average total), so I think you know where all this is headed.
I really don’t think the Niners should be favoured here, so not going to touch the spread side. Under looks trendy and the Niners are going to have to play good D to win this game. On the flipside the Jags can run all over this Niners defense, so I think that’s the formula for them. Running leads to unders. Initial notes; Under and Jags +3.
NFL Game 2 – DET -3 vs. LAC; Total: 48.5 O/U – I think when you look at this line you have to believe the Lions are more rightly 3 point favoured here than the game we just looked at above. Chargers can’t stop the pass and both teams should be able to slow down the opposing run games. I think the total will be close, 27-20 win by the Lions and you’re still on the under.
In their last 9 games coming off a bye, the Lions are 6-2-1 ATS and 3-6-0 O/U. I think it’s time to go back to the Detroit Lions for a play. In that same time period the Chargers as home dogs coming off a win, the O/U is 6-19-2. Both teams need their run games to set up their passing games. I think they will struggle just enough to keep us inside the total.
NFL Game 3 – WAS vs. SEA -5.5; Total: 44.5 O/U – I thought this would be an interesting match-up to check out. What happens to an embarrassed team post blow-out? The trends are not clear. The last three times Pete Carroll has taken his team out to the AFC and lost, they have rebounded well going 3-0 ATS and under in all three cases. Heavily under 15 pts below the average total. I don’t think back-to-back road games is a good setup for these Commanders. The home stadium advantage will definitely come into play as well. I like the UNDER.
NFL Pick of the week – BACK TO THE LIONS – DET -3, -100