And here we have it! Our underdog pick from the last round makes it through and get the opportunity to play our predicted Cup champion. Let’s look at three key elements of this match-up.
Comparing Key Elements of their Game
Goaltending – I don’t think we need to spend too much time analyzing this part. AV has a slight edge maybe in recency, but this is Price’s moment to shine as well; his life’s work leading to this SC opportunity.
Special Teams – Tampa beat two of the top 6 PK% teams from the regular season in CAR & NYI. Their PP% in the playoffs has been superb and can be counted on. It will face a hot Habs PK% (0 goals for VGK; 93.5% in playoffs).
Depth – Let’s look at the Goal dynamics per line on each team in the playoffs
TAM L1 / L2 / L3 / L4 = 66pts (+11) / 34pts (+8) / 15pts (+6) / 11pts (+4)
MTL L1 / L2 / L3 / L4 = 12pts (-4) / 37pts (-2) / 17pts (-6) / 25pts (+5)
Top 4 D (TOI/GP) Plus/Minus
TAM = -2 +11 +1 +7 = +17
MTL = +2 -2 +3 +0 = +3
The wave of Tampa’s special teams and depth should enable them to bust through even the best of Price’s play. There are a lot of guys (Price & Weber namely) who I think deserve a cup, but I think it’s going to be difficult for them.
Good Bets?
A lot of things have to go right for the Habs to win four games. TAM -280 is probably still decent value quite frankly, but it’s not my style of betting. I may package it with the Bucks NBA championship or your favourite Euro Cup future? Instead, I look at the Conn Smythe trophy for some value instead. Not since Quick and Thomas has a goalie secured the award. Vasilevskiy at +175 seems to be a better place. Sub-2.0 GAA; 4 shutouts and another series to come.
I thought about some alternative outcomes; namely Habs 4-3 and 4-2 series win are available at +700 odds. Worth looking into if you truly think there’s a case for them.
NHL Playoffs Picks – Stanley Cup Finals
1u – Vasilevskiy – Conn Smythe Trophy +175
0.5u – Tampa -2.5 games series win +180
Playoffs Picks Record: 6-2 +5.63 units
Stanley Cup Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning +750
Picks Log
Round 1: 1.5u CAR -1.5 games to win series -130 – Win +1.15u
Round 1: 1u NYI +130 – Win +1.3u
Round 1: 1u BOS+COL -103 – Win +0.97u
Round 1: 0.5u MIN +215 – Loss -0.5u
Round 2: 1u – BOS + COL series win parlay -100 – Loss -1u
Round 2: 0.5u Tampa -1.5 games series win +141 – Win +0.71u
Round 3: 0.5u Montreal Series Winner +425 – Win +2.125u
Round 3: 0.5u Montreal +1.5 games series win +175 – Win +0.875u
