Words from The Res
We enter the 3rd week of NHL and I’m looking to identify scheduling advantages now. Early in the season, the usual long breaks and B2B games don’t make as big of a difference. I mentioned on Episode 68 some of the key areas I look at for filtering my NHL plays.
Category 1 – Back-to-Back Advantages
Category 2 – Away Favourites
Category 3 – Long Breaks
Category 4 – Over/Under Triggers
Category 5 – Special Teams Differentials (PP vs PK)
Long Road Trips (5 or more)
NYR 1 game into 5 game road trip
SJ 1 game into a 5 game road trip
TOR 2 games into a 5 game road trip
VAN final game of a 5 game road trip
Long Home Stands (5 or more)
TB 2 games into a 5 game home stand
BUF Regulation -113 (Miss)
Comments – We looked for divisional dogs to fade early in the season, and this appeared to be a decent spot, but it missed. This was not on of the 5 Category plays above
Oct 24 – Likely Plays
NYR ML (Category 2)
OTT ML (Category 1)
NJD Regulation (Category 2)
Comments – Category 2 plays where we take Away Favourites with schedule advantages into play. Buffalo playing in Ottawa is going 3 games in 4 days and are 5-13 in these situations as underdogs!
Oct 25 – 30 – Notes
The crew was on the road (meaning us), the plays we took probably should not have been taken.
NJ Devils on Oct 25 hosting the Capitals was likely a bad forced play as match-up situation was not right. Hence, loss.
Oct 26, we posted a conservative BOS/TB parlay that saw the Bruins lose it in OT after giving up a 2 goals in the final minute to lose the game. (Loss)
We ended the week with some successes from a 1.5 unit win as we pressed the Canes on Oct 30. Overall, the week we went 4-6, losing 1.86 units
2023-24 NHL Season Record, 13-11, -1.56 units